Dept. of Democracy Rising

[kaffy_r]

Persistence and Promise

Bob and I attended the No Kings 3.0 rally closest to us, in Evanston's lakeside Dawes Park. Estimates later put the attendance at 2,000, a respectable number, given the lack of parking that the park offered (previous No Kings rallies were held in downtown Evanston). We left before the march, since our aging backs weren't up for it, but it was good to be there. One of the things that hit hardest for me were an incredibly long line of stakes with pictures of people attached to them, every one of them someone who died at the hands of ICE or CBP, either directly or indirectly. All those faces reminded me of one of the things we're fighting for as we try to remain a representational democracy; an end to murder, at home and abroad. 

When I got home, I checked for crowd estimates across the nation and the globe; The post-rally estimates I eventually found set the number at between 8 million and 9 million (which pre-rally estimates had predicted), with the majority seemingly hewing to an estimate of slightly more than 8 million. Out of curiosity, and for a reason, I checked what percentage of the American population attendance estimates would comprise. I decided to consider all attendance estimates as American-based, which is horribly parochial of me, but made it easier to undertake that exercise.

Eight million out of the most recent American population estimate of 342 million represents 2.34 percent of the population. If the total attendance reached 8.5 million, it would comprise 2.5 percent. If the attendance reached 9 million, that would represent 2.63 percent of the U.S. population. 

Each of these estimates gives me hope, largely because they are coming closer and closer to the so-called 3.5 rule - the sociological maxim first written about by Harvard professor and political scientist Erica Chenoweth that states any non-violent protest movement attracting 3.5 percent of a target population at peak participation is more than twice as likely than violent protests to meet its stated goals, such as regime change.

Chenoweth worked with Maria Stephan, a researcher with the Washington D.C.-based International Center of Nonviolent Conflict to develop the precept and, while there are obviously caveats and nuances - including the reality that "more than twice as likely" maps out to about 53 percent, only barely a majority of nonviolent protests that can be considered successes - it's still a powerful reminder that we can win. 

After the marches and rallies end, that's when the tough work begins, or has already begun. Speakers at the Evanston rally emphasized that and the same message echoed from rallies and marches across the nation and around the globe. So we have to be ready to work, get tired, get frustrated, get scared and get stubborn, in order to make the 3.5 percent precept rule in our favor. 

Still ... 3.5 percent is in sight. Let's make the May 1 general strike a success, check those numbers, and take it from there. 

Hope feels good. 

Comments

[redbird]

Another hopeful thought: I think that 8 million is larger than either of the first two No Kings Day rallies/marches.

[kaffy_r]

It is indeed. The first one, in June of last year, was about 5 million and the second, last October, was about 7 million. And while I don't know how much of each count was solely in the United States, it's telling that the number hasn't stagnated, as I'm sure That Man, his sycophants, and his cultists have hoped.

[redbird]

One odd or interesting thing about that number is how large the Boston event was, compared to other cities, because it was combined with the Pride parade. There were estimates on the order of one million, which for reference is considerably more people than live in Boston proper.

[kaffy_r]

The Boston organizers and Boston police estimated 180,000. That number probably climbed when the Pride parade was added. It's not surprising to me that your city held among the largest events, since you folks have had similar incredible numbers in the two previous No Kings rallies. Checking in on Chicago, I can find no solid (or even squishy) estimate, but I'm embarrassed to say our numbers appear smaller, even though we're much bigger than you.

Last October a professor of crowd control (who knew there was such a thing) estimated our downtown crowd at 15,000, while organizers estimated 75,000. I'd split the difference on the October, 2025, crowd, so somewhere around 45,000 to 50,000, but we have no official estimate for this year; Chicago's police department has a policy of not estimating crowd size. The Chicago Tribune estimated 10,000-15,000 for Saturday, but I'm tempted to think they just looked up last year's estimates. To think that we drew so few down to the Loop? As I said, I'm so embarrassed.

Then again, we had dozens of suburbs holding large size rallies and there were neighborhood rallies all across the city, outside of the major even in the Loop and Grant Park. If they all came downtown, the numbers would have gone up by at least another 10,000.

[sovay]

So we have to be ready to work, get tired, get frustrated, get scared and get stubborn, in order to make the 3.5 percent precept rule in our favor.

I'm already frustrated and tired!

I am glad you were out there, counting.

[kaffy_r]

I'm already frustrated and tired!

So say we all. I've been tired and frustrated since Nov. 5, 2024. But I guess I'll have to be even more tired and frustrated. It's not fair, but there we go ....